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Liberty Energy Inc. (LBRT)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 revenue was $0.98B and GAAP diluted EPS was $0.12; adjusted EBITDA was $168M, showing sequential improvement versus Q4 2024 as fleet utilization and efficiencies rose .
  • Versus estimates, Liberty delivered a revenue beat ($977.5M vs $948.5M consensus) and a modest adjusted EPS beat ($0.04 vs $0.03 consensus); GAAP EPS of $0.12 reflects non-GAAP adjustments including $19.3M investment gains * [GetEstimates: Q1 2025].
  • Management expects sequential growth in revenue and EBITDA in Q2 on higher utilization; full-year consolidated EBITDA framework of $700–$750M was indicated as intact, contingent on WTI staying in the low $60s range .
  • Capital allocation remained active: $37M returned to shareholders (1.0% shares retired, $0.08 dividend), liquidity was $164M with $210M debt drawn, and repurchase authorization remains ~$270M .
  • Strategic catalysts: power generation expansion via IMG acquisition and an MOU to anchor industrial development with LPI generation capacity; technology differentiation (digiPrime, AI-driven predictive maintenance, “Hive” operations hub) supports the “flight to quality” narrative .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Sequential improvement: revenue up 4% to $977M and adjusted EBITDA up 8% to $168M, driven by higher utilization and efficiency across frac, wireline, sand, and CNG delivery .
  • Technology-led performance: successful test of the industry’s first natural gas variable-speed pump (digiPrime) and record component longevity via AI-driven predictive maintenance; launch of the “Hive” digital intelligence hub to monitor operations 24/7 .
  • Power platform expansion: acquisition of IMG Energy Solutions to accelerate LPI’s EPC and PJM market capabilities and an MOU to anchor an industrial development with LPI power generation, strengthening diversified growth opportunities .

What Went Wrong

  • YoY compression: revenue declined vs Q1 2024 ($977M vs $1.073B), GAAP EPS fell ($0.12 vs $0.48), and adjusted EBITDA decreased 31% YoY as pricing headwinds persisted into 2025 .
  • Pricing pressure: conventional fleets experienced resets heading into 2025; management noted pricing was reset modestly lower through RFP season before stabilizing, reflecting a softer backdrop exiting 2024 .
  • Macro overhangs: tariff uncertainty and OPEC+ strategy introduced scenario risk; management is assessing mitigation efforts and highlighted that smaller/private E&Ps may pull back faster if WTI moves below $60 .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$1,138.6 $943.6 $977.5
Net Income ($USD Millions)$73.8 $51.9 $20.1
Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.44 $0.31 $0.12
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$247.8 $155.7 $168.2
EBITDA Margin %21.05%*15.44%*16.40%*

Values with asterisks retrieved from S&P Global.

MetricQ1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$1,073.1 $943.6 $977.5
Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.48 $0.31 $0.12
Adjusted Net Income ($USD Millions)$81.9 $16.7 $6.8
Adjusted EPS ($USD)$0.48 $0.10 $0.04

Segment breakdown: Not disclosed in Q1 2025 press materials (consolidated reporting only) .

KPIs and Balance Sheet

KPIQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
TTM Adjusted ROCE (%)22% 17% 12%
Liquidity ($USD Millions)$352 $135 $164
Cash ($USD Millions)$23 $20 $24
Total Debt ($USD Millions)$123 $191 $210
CapEx ($USD Thousands)$162,835 $188,148 $120,878
Shares Repurchased (units; % OS)1.939M; 1.2% 1.581M; 1.0% 1.546M; 1.0%
Dividend per Share ($)$0.07 (paid in Q3) $0.08 (paid in Q4) $0.08 (declared)

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Revenue & EBITDA trajectoryQ2 2025N/ASequential growth expected on higher utilization New/raised
Consolidated EBITDAFY 2025$700–$750M (framework referenced) Maintained; contingent on WTI low $60s Maintained
Effective Tax RateFY 2025~28% book rate; cash taxes ~½ of book Reiterated Maintained
Completions CapExFY 2025~$450M (maintenance + digiTechnologies) Reiterated; flexible to macro Maintained
Power CapExFY 2025~$200M (generation assets) Reiterated; cadence “slow and steady” Maintained
DividendOngoing$0.08/qtr $0.08 declared for June 20, 2025 Maintained
Share Repurchase AuthorizationOngoing~$294M remaining (as of 12/31/24) ~$270M remaining (as of Q1) Updated lower (usage)

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 2024, Q4 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
AI/tech and efficiencyRecord pumping efficiency; digiPrime progress; AI-enhanced systems Natural gas variable-speed pump tested; “Hive” monitoring hub; component longevity up via AI/ML Advancing, scaling
Pricing dynamicsYear-end softening; near-term price pressure, esp. conventional fleets Pricing reset modestly lower into 2025, then stabilized; resilient for next-gen fleets Stabilizing at lower levels
Macro/tariffs/OPEC+Elevated uncertainty across OPEC+, China, Middle East Active tariff mitigation; scenario planning; expect steady activity with large caps; risk skew to back-half Ongoing uncertainty; mitigations underway
Regional activityFleet shipped to Australia; Canada seasonality noted Haynesville/gas activity improving; Canada seasonal breakup manageable; Australia benefit in Q2 Gas basins uptick; normal seasonality
Power businessStrategy to expand beyond oilfield; ERCOT experience IMG acquisition accelerates PJM entry; MOU for industrial development; pipeline exceeds capacity ordered Building pipeline; 2026 operations start
Capital allocationIncreased dividend to $0.08; buybacks ongoing $37M returned; opportunistic buybacks; debt not to fund repurchases under uncertainty Balanced/prudent

Management Commentary

  • “Liberty delivered a solid first quarter, with revenue of $977 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $168 million, and distributed $37 million to shareholders… Our early year results demonstrate a positive rebound from the fourth quarter of 2024” — Ron Gusek, CEO .
  • “We are currently anticipating sequential growth in revenue and profitability in the second quarter from higher utilization… We are also actively assessing the implications of tariffs across our business and have already begun mitigation efforts.” — Ron Gusek .
  • “Our pipeline of power opportunities across North America continues to grow… smaller data centers up to 250 megawatts… operations beginning in Q1 of 2026.” — Ron Gusek .
  • “Revenue was $977 million compared to $944 million in the prior quarter… first quarter adjusted EBITDA of $168 million compared to $156 million… We expect the tax expense rate in 2025 to be approximately 28%.” — Michael Stock, CFO .
  • “We don’t anticipate a significant direct impact from tariffs at the moment… redirecting internationally sourced chemicals to domestic sources or less impacted countries.” — Michael Stock .

Q&A Highlights

  • Flight to quality and pricing: Post-RFP pricing stabilized; strong demand for next-gen gas-burning assets; inbound inquiries from existing customers for additional capacity at set pricing .
  • Flexibility in digiFleet and CapEx: Ability to defer engine deliveries/packaging and adjust 2026 builds; focus on cash flow management in back-half if macro weakens .
  • Buyback stance: Opportunistic given depressed stock, but balance sheet priority precludes using debt for repurchases amid uncertainty .
  • Macro sensitivity: Low-$60s WTI supports maintaining FY EBITDA range; sub-$60 could lead to modest activity reductions, with large publics likely holding budgets .
  • Gas activity: Improving fundamentals (LNG, power demand) driving incremental work in Haynesville; calendar optimized to accommodate gas customers .
  • Power pipeline: Opportunities exceed ordered capacity; advanced conversations and air permitting underway; modular focus for speed-to-market in smaller data centers .

Estimates Context

MetricConsensus (Q1 2025)Actual (Q1 2025)
Revenue ($USD)$948.5M$977.5M
Primary EPS ($USD)$0.03$0.04
Revenue - # of Estimates10—
Primary EPS - # of Estimates8—

Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Notes: Liberty reports GAAP diluted EPS of $0.12 and adjusted EPS of $0.04; S&P “Primary EPS” aligns with normalized/adjusted EPS, hence the adjusted EPS comparison * [GetEstimates: Q1 2025].

Implications: Consensus likely revises modestly higher for near-term quarters given Q2 sequential growth commentary, stabilized pricing, and improving utilization, while full-year adjustments hinge on macro (WTI range, tariff impacts) .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Sequential rebound is underway with Q1 revenue/EBITDA up and Q2 guided higher on utilization; pricing stabilized after RFP season, supporting margin preservation on next-gen fleets .
  • Q1 revenue and adjusted EPS beat consensus; GAAP-to-adjusted bridge reflects $19.3M gains on investments and non-recurring items; monitor non-GAAP adjustments’ impact on reported EPS trajectory * [GetEstimates: Q1 2025] .
  • Macro watch: Management indicates FY EBITDA framework ($700–$750M) intact with WTI in low $60s; scenario risk is back-half weighted if tariffs/OPEC+ dynamics deteriorate .
  • Capital discipline: $37M returned in Q1, authorization remains ~$270M, but buybacks will be balanced against maintaining a fortress balance sheet; no revolver use for buybacks .
  • Power growth optionality: IMG accelerates PJM capabilities; pipeline exceeds ordered capacity; modular reciprocating engines targeted with operations beginning Q1 2026, offering diversified earnings potential .
  • Technology differentiation continues to drive efficiency (digiPrime, AI/ML predictive maintenance, Hive) and component longevity improvements, underpinning Liberty’s “flight to quality” positioning .
  • Near-term modeling: Maintain mid-single-digit sequential EBITDA growth for Q2 on seasonality and utilization; tax rate ~28% book (cash ~½ of book) and 2025 CapEx ~$450M completions + ~$200M power guide provide guardrails .

*Values retrieved from S&P Global.